There may be some grey on the horizon, but Canada’s official numbers are telling a surprisingly bright summer story – one that has seen far less attention than the uncertainty surrounding it.
On July 15th, the Bank of Canada (BoC) again held its key interest rate at 2.25%. The economy is showing encouraging signs, although volatile oil prices, lingering inflation risks, and continuing U.S. trade tensions are keeping the Bank cautious. For now, it is waiting rather than moving rates in either direction.
And now for the start of August – even more good news!
On July 31st, Statistics Canada announced that real GDP grew 0.3% in May – up triple to the preliminary estimate of 0.1%. There was also a welcome ray of sunshine for real estate. Activity at the offices of real estate agents and brokers increased 5.1% in May, the largest monthly gain since October 2024, as reported by StatCan.
And the positive numbers continue. The annual inflation rate eased to 2.8% in June, down from 3.2% in May. And on August 7th, StatCan reported that Canada added 75,000 jobs in July as unemployment edged down to 6.4%. Together, the readings suggest an economy that is not standing still – but instead – performing better than many expected or realized.
Even with all the recent positive data, rates have now remained unchanged at 2.25% through the BoC’s first five policy decisions of 2026. No cuts. No increases. Just patience.
The thorn in the story centres on trade uncertainty. The U.S. has announced new 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods, including wine, cement, and – of all things – hockey sticks. The measures are aimed at what the Administration calls "discriminatory Canadian trade policies", particularly provincial restrictions on American alcohol.
While tariffs and trade policy may seem a long way from the housing market, they are part of the bigger economic picture buyers and sellers need to keep an eye on.
And, YES, real estate asking and sold prices are moderating, along with more options for buyers to choose from than in prior years of tight inventory. Expert guidance today helps identify the macro-economics of national stats alongside the micro-economics of neighbourhoods and even which side of the street in this complex marketplace… These are the kinds of insights I bring to the table when working with clients.
When anyone you know has finding their next home on their seasonal to-do list, your referral of my services is always appreciated.
